Field tests
What I tested
Experiments I actually ran, with the numbers that came back — including the ones that returned nothing at all. Anyone can publish the wins. The failures are where the transferable information is.
- 05
- Tests
- 01
- Outright failures
- № 01Failed2026
Cold outreach at volume to local trades
Can volume alone open a market that doesn't know it has the problem?
- Method
- ~5,000 cold emails plus ~100 SMS to local service businesses. Warmed domains, multi-step sequencing, segment-tuned copy — the same setup that produced 60–80% open rates on other campaigns.
- Result
- Zero replies. Not a low reply rate — zero. Deliverability was fine and opens happened, so the failure was downstream of the inbox.
- So what
- The problem wasn't the message, it was the premise: this audience had no felt pain about the thing I was selling. Switched trades to phone-first and reserved email for higher-ticket buyers who already know they have the problem.
0replies - № 02WorkedJuly 2026
One room vs. an entire outbound campaign
Does in-person beat scaled digital outreach for early-stage pipeline?
- Method
- Attended a single afternoon networking meetup and compared the outcome against the full cold-email experiment running in parallel.
- Result
- One room of working people produced more real conversations, replies and an actual employment lead than the entire cold-email experiment combined.
- So what
- Reweighted toward in-person and warm channels for anything early-stage. Cold volume is a scaling tactic, not a starting one — it multiplies a message that already works.
1 afternoonbeat ~5,000 emails - № 03MixedJuly 2026 — still running
The 20% Vault — selling with zero audience
Will a digital product sell organically before any audience exists?
- Method
- Book-synthesis products listed on a third-party marketplace with no promotion, no list and no paid traffic — left to be found. Running alongside two parallel demand tests on other marketplaces and a pinning channel.
- Result
- One organic sale from a buyer who found it themselves, after months at zero. It came from marketplace discovery rather than anything I did — which is the actual finding.
- So what
- Enough signal to keep the channel, nowhere near enough to call it validated. The honest reading is 'first paid sale, n=1' — not product-market fit. Marketplace placement is beating promotion at this stage, so that's where the next effort goes. This one is still in the mix, not decided.
n=1organic sale, zero marketing - № 04MixedJuly 2026
Rank-and-rent local site
Can a local service site generate demand before a business exists behind it?
- Method
- Built and ranked a local trade site as a pure demand test, deliberately bypassing my own rule about validating first.
- Result
- The site ranks and the engine is reusable, but the lead path was left in demo mode — so early enquiries had nowhere to go. A build finished; a system didn't.
- So what
- Produced a reusable site engine for future locations. Also a reminder that 'shipped' and 'working end to end' are different states, and only one of them earns anything.
livedemand test running - № 05WorkedJuly 2026
Migrating a 46-post blog off a hosted CMS
Can you leave a CMS without losing search visibility?
- Method
- Exported 46 posts, 8 pages and 53 tags from Ghost to MDX in a Next.js app. Wrote automated checks for URL parity and content fidelity, then cut DNS over.
- Result
- Every live URL still resolves — 107 direct, 3 intentional redirects, zero broken. Content fidelity verified across all 46 posts. Two real traps: the CMS's own routing didn't match what I assumed, and the host served an expired certificate after cutover.
- So what
- Verify routing against live HTTP status codes rather than trusting documentation or memory. The plan was wrong in four places; only the checks caught it.
110 / 110URLs preserved